With baseball's trading deadline approaching fast for players who are not
required to clear waivers by July 31st approaching fast, I thought I'd look at
who could be headed elsewhere this upcoming month. The team has played well as
of late, winning 8 of their past 12, including the first two of a seven game
road stretch to reach the All Star break. It's a delicate situation when
determining if a team is either a seller or a buyer when the trade deadline
approaches. To the casual Brewer fan, since the club is only three games
under .500 and six games back in the wild card race, those individuals would
think GM Doug Melvin should be a buyer and go for it. Not to mention the
fact that they would have to jump in front of the seven teams ahead of them in
the wild card standings. Well, those fans couldn't be further from the
truth. Before the season started, it was blatantly obvious that this team
was not going to contend for a playoff berth. Melvin has his eye on 2006
and beyond, not for the remainder of this essentially worthless season.
With that said, there are some obvious candidates to be with other teams come four weeks from now.
There aren't as many teams that are going to be having a fire sale of talent at
the trade deadline with some of the usual candidates are still hovering around
with playoff aspirations, meaning what the Brewers have to offer to other clubs
will hopefully net a larger return.
Some of the obvious names that could be moved are in the bullpen. While
the 'pen as a whole has been very effective, it has wavered as of late. It
seems that Ricky Bottalico will be shipped out. He has the least
amount of ties to the club, has a reasonable contract, can provide "veteran
leadership" to a contending club as he has been a serviceable closer before, and
he will be a free agent when the season is over. Even after he blew up
before my eyes this Sunday with me in the stands, he still has a decent 3.93
ERA. Ricky has been on record as saying that he would give his right arm
to go back to Boston and play for the Red Sox. Boston could be a likely
destination, what with Keith Foulke imploding on a nightly basis. I
wouldn't expect more than a fringe AA prospect or two in return for Bottalico.
Julio Santana also has been drawing a lot of attention from other
teams. I would actually prefer if the Crew held on to Santana, as he has
proved himself to be almost invaluable in the bullpen. He can consistently
throw in the high 90's, and has a plus breaking ball when able to locate it.
He has an amazing strike out rate of 32 K's to 28.2 innings. Santana also
makes at/near the league minimum and would bring back more value in a trade than
Bottalico would. I'd actually prefer that Melvin keep Santana around
unless he gets offered a deal that he cannot refuse.
Derrick Turnbow also could be another candidate, albeit less likely.
T-Bow is just another one of Melvin's nuggets that he got for virtually nothing
and turned into a quality, contributing big leaguer. It is apparent that
Turnbow does not have the greatest control in the world, fitting into the term
"effectively wild" almost perfectly. He is 17 for 19 in save
opportunities, has an ERA of 2.50, has struck out 33 in 36 innings, and is a
very effective ground ball pitcher for someone who throws as hard as he does.
If Melvin does deal Turnbow, it would be another example of buying low and
selling high, as would be the case with Santana. Since some teams
overvalue the closer role, Melvin might be able to fleece a team by giving up a
top prospect who is major league ready in return.
Out of the rest of the pitching staff, I think Tomo Ohka has the best
chance of being shipped off. While he has been a pretty decent pitcher
over his career, he obviously doesn't fit into the Crew's next winning team.
His style of pitching also is not conducive for Miller Park, as Tomo is an
extreme fly ball pitcher and Miller Park is like a band box. Melvin has
already dropped hints that he expects to ship Ohka out before the trading
deadline.